Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Sports: 2007 NIT Bracketology

Thanks for making 2007 NIT Bracketology so much fun with all the interest and willingness to comment!

Check out the bracket at NIT.org

How did I do? I got 26 of 32 correct. Thus, I missed on six picks.

I had Syracuse and Missouri State in the NCAA but they had their bubbles burst landing them in the NIT. I had Stanford and Arkansas in the NIT but they wound up in the NCAA. I had LSU, Akron, Missouri and Washington in the NIT but they missed the cut. Replacing the four I missed outright: Utah State, NC State, Fresno State, Hofstra.

Enjoy the NCAA and the NIT and hope to see you again in 2008 NIT Bracketology!

UPDATED as of March 10, 2007

UPDATE: Welcome Iowa Hawkeye fans! I just checked their RPI and it was 96 which puts them in a cluster of teams in that range vying for the last few spots in the NIT. Pros: finished 4th in Big Ten. Cons: weak SOS and poor performance in non-conference games.

UPDATE: Welcome University of Northern Iowa fans! It is NIT bubble time with UNI's 86 RPI. Pro: better RPI than say Iowa and beat Iowa. Cons: 3-7 in last 10 while Iowa was 6-4.

UPDATE: Welcome University of Central Florida fans! Championship week will be exciting for the Knights as the #2 seed in the CUSA tournament. 3 wins and they get to the NCAA! A win over UTEP/Rice (Thursday), a win over Houston (Friday) and a competitive game with Memphis (Saturday) would mean they go 7-3 over their last 10 which might get them a look by the NIT. However, if more regular season mid-major champions fall, they will get those final spots in the NIT. Stay tuned. Alas, UCF lost to Rice on 3/8/07 which drops their RPI > 100 which pretty much ends their chances at the NIT.

UPDATE: Welcome Western Kentucky fans! Unfortunately, their early exit in the Sun Belt leaves them at a 97 RPI and poor SOS numbers which is probably not enough to garner an at-large NIT bid.

UPDATE: Enjoy the picks over at NITOLOGY 2007. The 1 through 4 and 7 through 8 lines are pretty much in agreement. It is those spots in the 5 and 6 lines where there are divergent views.

The NIT takes 32 teams after the NCAA picks 65.

Regular season champions who do not win their post-season tournaments and do not get an NCAA invitation get an automatic NIT bid. The rest of the field is filled out by the NIT selection committee taking the best of the rest.

NCAA bubble teams just barely in so could wind up out:
Missouri State
Purdue
Illinois
Old Dominion

NIT teams that could sneak into the NCAA:
1 seed: West Virginia, Florida State, Kansas State, Ark (playing Florida for SEC auto bid on Sunday)

Solid NIT teams:
2 seed: Clemson, Air Force, Bama, Georgia
3 seed: Miss St, Bradley, UMass, Mich
4 seed: Akron, Stanford, DePaul, Washington
5 seed: Drexel, App State, Ok State, Miss
6 seed: LSU, San Diego State, Providence, Mizzou/SOUTHLAND - Texas AMCC

Auto-bids from regular season champs not going to NCAA:
7 seed:
MID-EASTERN - Delaware State
SOUTHWESTERN- Miss Valley State
MID-AMERICAN - Toledo
AMERICA EAST - Vermont


8 seed:
ATLANTIC SUN - East Tennessee State
METRO ATLANTIC - Marist
OHIO VALLEY - Austin Peay
SUN BELT - South Alabama


Just out of NIT:
Cal
Northern Iowa
Santa Clara
wichita state
Iowa
okla
Nebraska
UConn
Auburn

The following conferences are sending only their conference champions to the NCAA so if their regular season champ doesn't get into the NCAA, they get an automatic bid to the NIT.
AMERICA EAST - Vermont to NIT as Albany wins championship game on Sat
ATLANTIC SUN - East Tennessee State goes to the NIT after losing to Belmont who gets to go to the NCAA!
ATLANTIC 10 - Xavier an at large for the NCAA? They lose in semis; GW wins championship game on Sat
BIG SKY- Weber St. wins championship game on Wed
BIG SOUTH – Winthrop wins and are going to the NCAA!
BIG WEST - Long Beach State wins championship game on Sat
CONFERENCE USA – Memphis win championship Sat
IVY LEAGUE - UPenn - I forgot that the regular season winner goes to the NCAA as they have no conference tournament.
METRO ATLANTIC - Marist lost in semi-finals and goes to NIT; Niagara goes to NCAA
MID-AMERICAN - Toledo lost in semis and wind up in NIT; Miami (OH) to NCAA
MID-CONTINENT - Oral Roberts goes to the NCAA
MID-EASTERN - Delaware State goes to NIT; Florida A&M goes to NCAA
NORTHEAST - Central Conn wins championship game on Wed
OHIO VALLEY - Austin Peay lost in finals and goes to NIT and E. Kentucky goes to NCAA
PATRIOT - Holy Cross wins their championship game on Fri and go to NCAA!
SOUTHERN - Davidson wins championship
SOUTHLAND - Texas AMCC; championship game on Sun
SOUTHWESTERN- Miss Valley State to NIT; Jackson State to NCAA
SUN BELT - South Alabama lost in quarter-finals, goes to NIT; North Texas goes to NCAA
WEST COAST - Gonzaga goes to NCAA
WESTERN ATHLETIC – Nevada will get in as at-large even thought they lost in the semis; New Mexico State wins championship Sat

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12 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

no CUSA teams?...

5:56 PM  
Blogger Rene said...

Thanks for your interest in NIT Bracketology!

Memphis is the top dog of Conference USA and is a lock for the NCAA. Alas, the rest of the CUSA has virtually no at-large profile for the NCAA and it carries over into NIT selection which focuses on NCAA bubble burst teams, .500 power conference teams and mid-major regular season champs who lose in their conference tournaments.

I suppose if Houston were to upset Memphis on the road this weekend and complete the sweep of UCF and then make it to the final game of the CUSA conference tournament but lose (probably to Memphis), they would get a serious look by the NIT selection committee.

Will be updating the NIT bracketology after this weekends games.

Thanks for checking in and commenting!

6:30 PM  
Blogger Rene said...

U of Central Florida (UCF) is tied with Houston for 2nd in the C-USA. However, having lost to Memphis and Houston and playing a weak schedule, their profile isn't promising.

However, if they avenge their loss to Houston and make a run to the finals of their conference tournament then they might get a second look for the NIT.

12:12 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looking at your waiting list as of 2.23.06, I think only GW, Fresno State, or Loyola have a shot considering their records, I haven't compared RPI's though. Evansville, Wake won't even have a chance to make .500 in their conference! I think both UCF and Houston have a better shot at the NIT.


Hawaii 5-8 15-12
GW 8-5 17-8
Wake 4-10 13-14
Fresno 7-6 19-8
Loyola 10-5 20-9
Auburn 5-8 15-13
Hofstra 13-4 21-8
Evansville 6-11 14-15

CUSA's 2nd and 3rd team stats...

UCF 9-4 20-7
Houston 9-4 15-12

6:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iowa is 4th place in the B10, I don't see how they can or should be left out of the NIT, no matter how many auto-bids there are.

3:57 PM  
Blogger Rene said...

Thanks for dropping by Iowa fans!

I just checked their RPI and it was 97. Unfortunately, I think that would leave them out of the NIT mix.

4:31 PM  
Anonymous Andrew said...

Sorry, but theres no way I see Iowa being left out of the mix. As previously stated, they were seeded #4 in the Big 10 Conference. They have quality wins over Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue. If the NIT leaves out Iowa, there is something wrong. Don't take it personally, but I think you're putting way too much stock into the RPI.

8:34 PM  
Blogger Rene said...

Great to see the passion from the Hawkeye fans!

Indeed, the NIT may select Iowa on the strength of their in conference performance.

Their downside is some of their losses like against Arizona State (doormat of Pac-10), Minnesota and Penn State. Also some of their wins are against > 200 RPI teams.

As I see it the 1-line are teams who will beef about being left out of the NCAA. The 2-4 line teams are solid NIT. The 7-8 line teams are auto bids. The NIT selection committee will agonize (or not?) over those last 8 spots in the 5-6 line.

Probably any 16 teams would deserve those spots.

11:25 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iowa beat Minnesota twice this season, didn't lose to them at all. While Iowa does have some bad L's, such as ASU and PSU. Iowa did beat the likes of Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Toledo, Purdue, and Michigan. There is not really one good reason why Iowa is left out of the NIT, the RPI argument is rather weak when you take all things into consideration.

1:02 AM  
Blogger Rene said...

Opps. My bad, I looked over their schedule again and you are right that Iowa beat Minnesota twice.

Indeed, Iowa should be in if the NIT selection committee weighs the Big Ten conference schedule more heavily than other factors

To be honest, they might do exactly that. Like the NCAA tournament, the mid-majors tend to get into the NIT via the auto-bid rather than at-large.

As a Pac-10 partisan, I would like to see the Cal Bears get in. They got a few nice wins but also got some ugly losses. Their SOS numbers and RPI numbers are pretty decent ... better than Iowa's ... but I think push comes to shove, Iowa would get in before the Bears would on the strength of their Big-10 play.

My confidence in my line 6 picks is not real high and any of those could easily be swapped out and Iowa put in.

Stay tuned!

8:04 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you going to do this again for 2008?

7:33 PM  
Blogger Rene said...

NIT Bracketology is back for 2008!

9:28 AM  

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