Monday, November 01, 2004

Keeping Up With the Polls

Hi-De-Ho Rene,

What sites do you visit for a daily dose of election polls and punditry? After starting by grazing the web-iverse, I've narrowed it down to a handful of essentials:

RealClear Politics

Rasmussen Reports

Iowa Electronic Markets -- I don't watch the IEM as a bellwether of what will happen, but rather as a solid measure of the CW among the technologically savvy.

Kaus Files (for a clear-eyed opposition viewpoint)

Using those sources, I'm thinking it's Bush, more narrowly in the Electoral College than in raw numbers, but I can't shake the memory of similar polls just prior to Election Day 2000. And with so many "new" registered voters and cell-phone owners who aren't typically polled, my confidence is very thin.

How 'bout you?

Later,
Kari

1 Comments:

Blogger Rene said...

I too am a regular visitor to RCP.

Here is the latest from Bevan.

He is honest enough to admit the national popular vote trend isn't looking good for Bush but he cites some other interesting numbers that are more favorable to the incumbant.

Living in California, a blue state, means the atmosphere is anti-Bush and it is hard for me to feel optimistic about the President's chances for re-election.

In the end, I'm guessing the popular vote totals will be close as it was in 2000. But as we all know from 2000, the bottom line is the electoral college numbers.

Here is RCP's round up of those polls from the states. Eight states stand on that knife edge.

According to RCP, of these swing states, Bush needs to get 43 or more electoral votes to get to the 270 needed for re-election while Kerry needs 63.

Prediction:

On the popular vote side, I think it will be 49-49 with either side winning by 500,000 to 1,000,000 votes.

But in the all important electoral votes... two scenarios: (1) W pulls off the trifecta taking FL, OH, PA right off the bat ending the suspense early on Tuesday night; (2) the night drags on which I think favors Kerry and he ekks out a victory with just barely over the minimum 270. The latest data seems to support scenario number two. However, I think the November surprise will be the headline: Bush 309 Kerry 229 and a quick evening.

On a personal note, I'm still recovering from surgery and my goal on Tuesday is to make it to the ballot box to cast my vote for W which in California is a meaningless vote and to vote on ballot measures. My stamina remains low but I'm awake for longer and longer stretches though alertness levels while I'm awake remain erratic.

And finally dear readers, no matter what the pollsters say, go out and vote!

4:15 PM  

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